历史没有终结

冷战结束后，弗朗西斯*福山写了一本著名的书，历史的终结，说随着社会主义阵营的瓦解，自由资本主义在全球获得彻底的胜利，从此人类解决了意识形态的争论，只需一心一意搞自由民主+资本主义就是了。

然而历史终究是上帝的地盘，不是人类温顺的仆人。哪怕是大智慧的先知和学者，也无法完全预见人类历史前进的轨迹。正如马克思资本主义必将被工人阶级推翻的预言落空了一样，福山的断言也被证明言之过早。

08年的全球金融危机把世界资本主义内在的问题暴露在世人面前。中国模式的成功更是对民主资本主义的模式提出了巨大的挑战。英美的政治闹剧和全球民主的退潮说明历史不但没有终结，而是仍然象布朗运动一样地
不以任何人意志为转移地非常随机地演进。其实后斯大林时期苏联的社会主义未必全无一点合理的地方，世界何必要按一种模式存在呢？

在这个世界格局大变动的时期，有一点可以肯定，那就是美国做世界盟主与警察的时代正在成为过去。美国逐渐无实力做盟主，亦无道德权威做警察。奥巴马在阿富汗和伊拉克的撤军，以及川普的America First 的主张，是顺应这种趋势的体现。毕竟让美国深嵌入世界事务的二战和冷战，都成了记忆。美国对外收缩，对内反思调整，正当其时也。从这点上看，希拉里的外交理念，的确是过时了。她的出发点是好的，但时代已经
变了。美国已经不是二战结束时期的美国。电视噱星川普的当选，证明了美国的政治已经堕落到何种地步。

国际政治，从过去阵线分明的二元对抗，进入现在的高维非线性量子纠缠。资本主义与社会主义的制度之争，不再是历史进程的主旋律。人类社会现在面临的核心问题，是经济发展造成对生态环境的严重破坏。这个问题将是决定人类文明未来进程的主线。

人类历史没有终结，将会按照她自己的意愿走下去。

Why did Trump win?

I view Trump win as a cry for help from the Republican base.  The Republican agenda has consistently failed its base for the last 30 years.  The true agenda has been to shift more power and money to the super wealthy, with no regard to the suffering of the middle and lower classes.  They get the votes from these voters by playing their racial animosity towards the minority, and by waging a cultural war against the so called "liberals".  Once in office, their only interest is to hand more tax cuts and more power to the economic elites, with no regard to the needs and welfare of their working class supporters.

In addition, they brainwashed their supporters to distrust the government.  As a result, the base find less and less reasons to trust the existing political institutions and mainstream politicians. The mainstream politicians have utterly failed them anyway.  No wonder they decided to find someone outside of mainstream in the recent election cycles.

We don't see this at the Democratic side because
1. The Democrats have more or less tried to help their supporters.  Their professed agenda largely matches what they do once in office
2. The Democrats don't incite extreme distrust and hatred of government.  As a result, Democrats are more trustful of existing political institutions.

There is another theory, which is Trump won because of his open racism.  This has some valid points.  But I don't think there are so many hard core racists, even in the Republican party, to push him over the top.  The main reason, I believe, is still economical.  Trump supporters want a better life.  They have utterly lost faith in the Republican establishment, which I don't blame them.  They also can't trust Democrats.  As a result, the only one they can support is Trump, a businessman with no government experience.  This is a "shock therapy" the Republican primary voters administered to the political system.

The conservative movement ushered in by Reagan has run its sorry course.  It probably was a fad from the beginning.  Never has been an honest intellectual movement, but a facade to advance plutocracy in this country.  The base has had enough and rebelled.  I have no sympathy towards it.  Let it die. Reaganism has passed its expiration date.  Dismantling social welfare and lavish tax cuts for the wealthy have never been popular among the majority of people.

Reasonable and honest Republicans should return to the center and start over.   We need a two party system.



Note: the picture is downloaded from NBC